Donald Trump is spiraling, and the receipts are public. The president erupted in a wild tirade on Truth Social about voter fraud and voter ID, pinning the rant to the top of his feed and spending the last 24 hours amplifying similar posts.

Translation: he’s telling Republicans to gear up for mass voter suppression because the midterms are looking brutal.

The numbers explain the meltdown. One new poll has his approval at 38 percent. Another survey puts Democrats ahead in the generic House ballot by six points. And polling averages show Trump’s approval on immigration—supposedly his signature winning issue—at abysmal lows.

This is unusual territory. Republicans have traditionally owned two issues in voters’ minds: the economy and immigration. Trump is currently underwater on both.

Lakshya Jain, head of political data for The Argument, says the numbers get worse when you dig into the details, particularly on the economy. The surface-level disapproval is bad enough, but the crosstabs reveal deeper erosion among groups Trump needs to hold.

By “warning” Republicans to make voter fraud central to 2026, Trump isn’t actually sounding an alarm about election integrity. He’s laying the groundwork for the same playbook that’s animated the GOP since 2020: if you can’t win the votes, make it harder for people to cast them.

The panic is understandable. Midterm elections historically punish the party in power, and Trump’s approval is already in the danger zone. A six-point Democratic lead on the House ballot this early in the cycle isn’t just bad news—it’s the kind of number that makes congressional Republicans start thinking about their own survival.

What makes this moment notable is how Trump is responding. Rather than moderating or pivoting to issues where he might gain ground, he’s doubling down on grievance politics and election denialism—the same strategy that cost Republicans winnable races in 2022.

Democrats, meanwhile, are watching opportunities open up in places they didn’t expect. When a Republican president is losing on the economy and immigration simultaneously, the traditional electoral math starts to break down.

Trump’s Truth Social feed tells the story: a president who knows the numbers are bad and has no answer except to scream about fraud and hope Republicans can suppress their way to victory.