Americans are paying 96 percent of the cost of Donald Trump’s tariffs—not foreign countries. That’s the finding of new research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which just obliterated the president’s favorite economic talking point.
“The claim that foreign countries pay these tariffs is a myth,” said Julian Hinz, Research Director at the Kiel Institute and co-author of the study. “The data show the opposite: Americans are footing the bill.”
THE DETAILS: The German think-tank analyzed over 25 million shipment records covering nearly $4 trillion in U.S. imports between January 2024 and November 2025. Their conclusion? Foreign exporters absorbed only about 4 percent of the tariff burden. American consumers and importers got stuck with the rest.
Trump, who proudly calls himself “Mr. Tariff,” has spent the majority of his second term bragging that his trade policy is bringing in billions from other nations. Turns out those billions are coming from American wallets.
The study found that rather than lowering prices to offset tariffs, foreign countries simply shipped less to the United States. “We compared Indian exports to the US with shipments to Europe and Canada and identified a clear pattern,” Hinz explained. “Both export value and volume to the US dropped sharply, by up to 24 percent. But unit prices—the prices Indian exporters charged—remained unchanged. They shipped less, not cheaper.”
In other words, the tariffs function as a domestic consumption tax, not a tax on foreign producers. And the researchers predict American consumers will face higher prices going forward.
BUT BUT BUT: The White House, of course, disagrees with reality. Deputy press secretary Kush Desai told the Daily Beast that “the Administration has consistently maintained that foreign exporters who depend on access to the American economy, the world’s biggest and best consumer market, will ultimately pay the cost of tariffs, and that’s exactly what’s playing out.”
Except the data says the exact opposite is playing out.
WHY IT MATTERS: This isn’t just an academic debate. Trump’s tariff obsession has created volatile market conditions and heightened global tensions throughout his second term. Just last Saturday, the president threatened a 10 percent import tax against eight European nations that have opposed his attempted takeover of Greenland, set to take effect February 1.
“These Countries, who are playing this very dangerous game, have put a level of risk in play that is not tenable or sustainable,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, threatening “strong measures” for “Global Peace and Security.”
Meanwhile, U.S. whiskey exports have fallen 27 percent to the European Union due to retaliatory tariffs from the 27-nation alliance.
The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs. Trump has already declared the U.S. would be “SCREWED” if the court doesn’t rule in his favor—which tells you everything about how confident he is in the legal footing of his own policy.
BOTTOM LINE: “Tariffs ultimately disadvantage everyone,” Hinz said. And right now, Americans are the ones paying for Trump’s favorite flex—to the tune of 96 cents on every tariff dollar.