Even Texas—the crown jewel of Republican electoral dominance—is starting to slip away from Trump, and Karl Rove is sounding the alarm.
The veteran GOP operative and former senior adviser to George W. Bush went on Fox News this weekend to deliver some devastating news to his party: Trump’s collapse among Latino voters is creating a “big” problem ahead of the 2026 midterms, and it’s already showing up in the reddest of red states.
THE DETAILS: The numbers tell a brutal story. Nearly 50 percent of Latinos voted for Trump in 2024, according to Pew Research.
Just one year later? A staggering 70 percent now disapprove of his job performance, largely thanks to his handling of immigration and the economy. A recent poll from The Economist and YouGov found his approval among Hispanics at a pathetic 36 percent.
“This is a variable group whose movement into the Republican column in 2024 helped elect Donald Trump to a second term and helped Republicans hold the Senate and the House,” Rove told Fox News. “It’s a problem and we’re going to see it here in Texas.”
Rove specifically pointed to the Texas district running from Corpus Christi to Brownsville—Trump won it by just one point in 2024. “So if his support is softening among Hispanics, that makes it unlikely that we’re going to be able to knock off an incumbent Democrat,” he said.
OF COURSE: In a delicious bit of karma, Rove also highlighted the Henry Cuellar situation. Trump pardoned the Texas Democrat—who was facing a dozen charges including bribery and money laundering—back in December. The apparent expectation? That Cuellar would switch parties in gratitude. (Surprise) He didn’t.
“Not only did the president give Henry Cuellar, who was under indictment, a pardon, but he then expected him to switch parties, and he ain’t switching parties,” Rove explained. “That’s going to be a difficult district for us to carry.”
Trump’s troubles extend beyond Texas. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in early January—just after an ICE agent fatally shot 37-year-old mother Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis—found 57 percent of registered voters disapprove of how ICE is enforcing immigration laws. Fifty-three percent said Good’s killing was not justified.
WHY IT MATTERS: Texas hasn’t gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. But the state’s demographics have been shifting for years, with its Latino population growing rapidly.
Republicans have long feared the day when Texas becomes competitive—and Trump’s spectacular collapse among the exact voters who helped deliver him a second term might just accelerate that timeline.
When Karl Rove—the architect of George W. Bush’s victories and one of the GOP’s most seasoned electoral strategists—goes on Fox News to wave red flags about Texas, it’s not just punditry. It’s a five-alarm fire for the Republican Party’s future.