Democrats just hit their highest score ever on the generic congressional ballot in a Fox News poll—yes, Fox News—leading Republicans 52% to 46% as midterm season kicks into high gear.
WHAT’S GOING ON: The new polling shows Democrats absolutely dominating on the issues voters actually care about. They’re crushing Republicans on affordability by 14 points, health care by 21 points, helping the middle class by 14 points, and—perhaps most surprisingly—even winning on taxes by 1 point. The GOP’s traditional strongholds are shrinking fast.
“Democrats are taking back the House in November,” declared DCCC spokesperson Justin Chermol. Bold? Sure. But the numbers back him up.
THE DETAILS: Republicans still lead on border security (by 15 points), national security (by 12), and immigration (by 5). But here’s the problem: President Trump’s approval among independent voters is underwater by 40 points—a second-term low. That’s not a warning sign; that’s a five-alarm fire.
The momentum is real. Democrats just flipped a Texas state Senate seat by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 in 2024. That follows a string of Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere throughout 2025. The pattern is clear: anti-Trump messaging plus affordability equals wins.
BUT BUT BUT: Democrats face a roughly $100 million financial disadvantage heading into November. The DNC has $14 million cash on hand but $17.5 million in debt. Meanwhile, the RNC is sitting on $95.1 million with zero debt. Money doesn’t vote, but it sure helps get voters to the polls.
Trump knows he’s in trouble. “Presidents, whether it’s Republican or Democrat, when they win, it doesn’t make any difference. They seem to lose the midterms,” he told Fox News last week. “Hopefully, we’re going to change that around.”
WHY IT MATTERS: History isn’t on the GOP’s side—the president’s party has lost House seats in all but two midterms since 1938. Gerrymandering may limit the damage this cycle, but a 6-point generic ballot lead is nothing to dismiss. At this point in 2018, Democrats led by 7.3 points and went on to flip 41 seats.
The Fox News poll sampled 1,005 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. While that might not sound like a lot, it’s in line with political polling. Polling more people above that generally doesn’t provide more accurate numbers.
This isn’t wishful thinking—it’s math.