Republicans are sweating bullets. Immigration—the issue that powered Donald Trump back to the White House—is turning into a full-blown political disaster less than a year before the 2026 midterms, and some GOP strategists are in full panic mode.
WHAT’S GOING ON: The Trump administration’s brutal immigration crackdown in Minneapolis has left two people dead at the hands of federal agents in a matter of weeks. First, 37-year-old Renee Good was fatally shot. Then, 37-year-old Alex Pretti was killed Saturday. The deaths have sparked outrage, protests, and now a growing rebellion within Republican ranks—though most are too scared to criticize Trump directly.
“This is about regaining the trust of the American people on this issue, and I really think we’re losing on an issue that we should be winning on,” Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina told reporters on Capitol Hill. Of course, Tillis is retiring—making him one of the few willing to say the quiet part out loud.
THE DETAILS: The panic is real and measurable. Republican strategist Jason Roe, who works on midterm campaigns, offered a blunt assessment to the AP: “The administration has lost control of the narrative. We can’t get out from underneath what’s happening in Minneapolis.”
The political math is brutal. “Democrats are really, really mad and they cannot wait to go vote,” Roe said. “And I just am not seeing that in any polling I’ve seen on the Republican side.” The party that controls the White House historically loses ground in midterms anyway—and Republicans have struggled mightily in elections without Trump on the ballot.
BUT BUT BUT: Republicans who can’t bring themselves to criticize their dear leader have found a convenient scapegoat: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Sen. Lisa Murkowski called for Noem’s resignation, saying “we need clarity and accountability for the chaos and tragedy we have seen.” Tillis has also demanded she be replaced.
Trump, predictably, is standing by her. “Doing a very good job,” he said. Democrats want Noem impeached, but they lack the votes to make it happen.
OF COURSE: The standoff has now collided with a government funding deadline. Democrats are refusing to pass Homeland Security funding without major changes to ICE operations, and a growing number of Senate Republicans are open to splitting that bill off from the broader package—essentially acknowledging the political crisis they’re facing.
Even Trump seems to be reading the room, telling ABC News he hoped operations in Minneapolis would become “a little bit more relaxed” and “de-escalated.” But then he threatened Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey on social media, posting that the mayor was “PLAYING WITH FIRE” for wanting the enforcement operation to end.
BOTTOM LINE: Immigration won Trump the election. Now the bloody reality of his enforcement policies is handing Democrats the anger and motivation they need heading into 2026. Republicans know it—they’re just too afraid of Trump to do anything about it.