It's now been a full week since Democrats in the Texas House fled the state in a last stand against a Republican gerrymandering plot designed to cement permanent minority rule.
While the missing lawmakers’ exact locations are unknown, some have shown up in Chicago, some in New York, and some are said to be holding up in California.
It’s a remarkable show of backbone in a party led by spineless wimps—in a country itching for leaders who will stand up to a power-hungry fascist movement hellbent on staying in power.
But what happens next? Republicans are calling for the FBI to intervene; the governor is floating illegal schemes to boot the missing Dems from office. Will they be forced to return? Will they be arrested? Will the Republicans succeed in rigging more elections in their favor?
In this NOTICE News Deep Dive, we’ll try to answer those questions, predict how this fight might end, and what it means for our democracy overall.
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➡️ How it all started
In late July, Texas Republicans released a plan to re-draw the state’s congressional map.
The unusual mid-decade redistricting followed a pressure campaign from Trump’s political team, eager to get an unfair advantage in next year’s midterms where they may lose up to 40 seats (and their majority) in the House.
THE BASICS: The GOP plan would make Texas’s congressional map—already one of the most gerrymandered in the country—less competitive, and possibly give Republicans five additional seats in the House.
Trump later claimed Republicans were “entitled” to those seats.
DEMS FIGHT BACK: Because Texas only has a part time legislature (like 40% of the country), the governor, Republican Greg Abbott, called a special session to pass the new map.
Democrats, holding only 62 of the 150 seats in the state’s House of Representatives, had limited options to try and block the plan.
Rather than just roll over, 50 of them decided to leave the state—with the help of Blue state governors—to deny the legislature with a quorum.
WHAT’S A QUORUM: A quorum is the bare minimum number of members any legislative body needs present to actually do business and make decisions.
According to the Texas constitution, two-thirds of the total membership—which, for 150 members, means 100 representatives—must be physically present for legislation to be considered.
Republicans only hold 88 seats, so without Democrats, the House can’t legally meet.
BUT BUT BUT: The Texas Constitution also gives the members who are present the power to compel absent members to return—by force if necessary.
That’s why Republican leaders have issued civil arrest warrants for the missing Democrats, authorizing state law enforcement to detain them and physically bring them back to the Capitol.
This isn’t a “perp walk”–style criminal arrest. It’s civil detention—basically, lawmakers being held until they agree to show up and vote.
But if the Democrats stay out of Texas, there’s no way for those warrants to be enforced. That’s why they fled to places like Illinois, New York, and California, where Texas law enforcement has no jurisdiction.
WHAT ABOUT THE FBI? Texas’s Republican Senator John Cornyn, who’s facing a tough primary fight from the ultra-right wing Attorney General Ken Paxton this year, has called on the FBI to help bring the protesting lawmakers back to Texas.
Trump lackey and FBI Director Kash Patel has agreed to help, but according to the Washington Post, there’s very little the FBI can do.
Not attending the legislature is not a crime, and without the violation of a crime, the FBI can’t make an arrest (at least not yet).
😟 What happens next
The sad news is that realistically, there’s probably no way for this protest to actually stop the redistricting.
SOME BACKGROUND: Democrats have tried this move before — and lost.
In 2003, they bolted twice, first to Oklahoma and then to New Mexico, to stop a similar mid-decade redistricting plan pushed by Republicans.
Governor Rick Perry kept calling special sessions until enough Democrats returned and the maps passed. In 2004 Republicans flipped multiple U.S. House seats.
Almost 20 years later, in 2021, Democrats fled to Washington, D.C., to block a Republican voting restrictions bill and gerrymander.
Again, Governor Greg Abbott called special session after special session. Eventually, enough members came back, the GOP passed its bills, and the maps stayed in place.
History suggests that unless something very different happens this time, the ending will be the same—Republicans get their maps, just maybe with a few tweaks.
WHAT TO EXPECT: In the short term, expect Abbott to keep the pressure on.
He can call 30-day special sessions back-to-back for as long as he wants, and he’s already signaled he’ll use every tool available—civil arrest warrants, fines, and political shaming—to break the standoff.
And even if Democrats manage to stay out of state, Texas courts have shown a willingness before to delay elections while maps are being settled (which partly contributed to Ted Cruz’s victory in 2012).
The likeliest scenario is the same one we’ve seen before: after weeks (or months) of living out of state, the strain—financial, personal, and political—pulls members home. Republicans pass their maps, and the 2026 elections happen under new district lines.
BUT BUT BUT: Democrats may lose the battle—but ultimately win an important moral victory that sets off a wider fight.
🇺🇸 How Democrats could win—despite losing
Just like the Battle of the Alamo almost two hundred years ago, this redistricting fight in Texas may be a tactical loss for Democrats but an important moral victory for anti-fascists all over the country. Here’s how.
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