How Republicans are trying to steal the midterms

On Saturday, the Texas state Senate passed a new congressional redistricting plan that will likely give the Republican party five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

It would be a small but crucial addition to the party’s razor-thin majority of just five seats in the lower chamber.

But it’s not the only move Republicans are making right now to try and rig next year’s midterm elections in their favor.

With Trump’s approval sinking and the party out of step with most Americans on nearly every major issue, Republicans are clinging to power by any means necessary.

And to do that, they’ve launched a four-pronged attack on democracy aimed at keeping themselves in power—no matter what the people actually want.

Republican efforts to tilt the 2026 midterms fall into four main categories: aggressive gerrymandering, strict voter ID laws, restrictions on mail-in voting, and targeted barriers in minority communities.

Each represents a calculated attempt to suppress Democratic votes and inflate Republican representation.

The most brazen example is Texas's mid-decade redistricting push. Breaking with the traditional post-census cycle, Republican lawmakers are redrawing congressional maps specifically to create five new GOP-leaning districts.

This strategy, pushed by Trump and Governor Abbott, represents one of the most aggressive attempts to manipulate electoral boundaries outside the normal redistricting process.

Texas isn't alone. North Carolina Republicans, after gaining control of the state Supreme Court, implemented a new congressional map in 2023 that transforms the delegation from a balanced 7-7 split to a likely 10 or 11 Republican seats out of 14.

The Brennan Center considers it one of the most biased maps in the country, engineered so that even in a Democratic wave year, Republicans would hold a large majority of seats.

The impact is staggering. According to expert analysis, Republican gerrymandering nationwide has created approximately 16 fewer Democratic-leaning districts than fair maps would produce.

Academic research shows partisan gerrymandering gives Republicans an average gain of about 2 additional House seats per election cycle. In a close Congress—those two seats could make all the difference.

Since 2022, Republican-controlled states have implemented increasingly strict photo ID requirements that disproportionately burden minority, elderly, and student voters.

Idaho Republicans targeted young voters specifically, passing laws in 2023 that removed student photo IDs from acceptable identification for voting and tightened proof-of-identity requirements for voter registration.

Nebraska implemented a constitutional amendment requiring voters to present valid photo ID at polls and include copies with mail-in ballots.

Ohio passed some of the nation's strictest voting rules, mandating photo ID for in-person voting and eliminating alternatives like utility bills or bank statements that were previously sufficient.

These changes create new barriers for eligible voters who may lack current government-issued photo identification, including naturalized citizens, seniors, and college students.

They ensure that only the most committed voters will be able to vote—not the busy single parent, the progressive young student, or the limited English speaker. All of that tilts the election in Republicans’ favor.

Taking their cue from the very top, Republican legislatures have systematically attacked mail-in voting access. They know that expanded mail voting typically benefits Democratic turnout.

Georgia's controversial S.B. 202, passed in 2021 but with ongoing effects, limits absentee ballot access, prohibits officials from proactively sending ballot requests, and bans providing food or water to voters waiting in line.

Ohio shortened its mail-ballot grace period from 10 days to just 4 days after Election Day, meaning many mailed votes that previously counted will now be rejected. The state also limited counties to one drop-box location regardless of population size.

Arkansas criminalized election officials giving absentee ballots to voters who haven't specifically requested them, effectively banning proactive ballot outreach.

Meanwhile, Mississippi passed laws making it a crime for community groups, neighbors, or volunteers to help homebound, elderly, or rural voters deliver their ballots. The law was challenged in court, but much of it remains in effect.

Perhaps most insidiously, many of these restrictions disproportionately impact minority communities.

Alabama's GOP-controlled legislature defied court orders to create a second Black-majority congressional district, instead passing a map that deliberately dilutes Black voting power.

Florida Republicans dismantled a North Florida district represented by a Black Democrat, scattering the district's Black population across multiple seats to reduce their electoral influence.

The state also imposed strict rules on third-party voter registration groups that historically helped register minority voters.

Texas Republicans passed laws giving the state Secretary of State power to take over election administration in counties with over 4 million people—effectively targeting Harris County (Houston), the state's most diverse Democratic stronghold.

They also abolished Harris County's elections administrator office entirely.

Expert projections suggest these combined efforts could swing 5 to 10 House seats toward Republicans—potentially enough to determine control of the chamber in what promises to be a closely contested election.

The Texas redistricting alone could provide Republicans with up to five additional seats, significantly bolstering their current narrow majority.

When combined with voter suppression efforts in competitive districts nationwide, these structural advantages could allow Republicans to maintain power even if they lose the popular vote by significant margins.

What makes this moment particularly dangerous is the coordination and timing of these efforts.

Rather than isolated state-level initiatives, this represents a systematic, nationwide campaign to manipulate electoral rules in Republicans' favor just as Trump's popularity wanes and the party faces potential losses on issues like abortion rights, healthcare, and economic inequality.

The mid-decade redistricting in Texas breaks a fundamental norm in American democracy—that congressional maps are redrawn only after each census.

By abandoning this principle, Republicans are signaling their willingness to change the rules of the game whenever it serves their partisan interests.

This isn't about election integrity or preventing fraud—study after study has shown that voter fraud remains virtually nonexistent. Instead, it's about a political party that recognizes it's losing the battle for public opinion and is resorting to structural manipulation to maintain power.

The 2026 midterms may ultimately be decided not by which party has better ideas or more popular candidates, but by which party has been more successful at rigging the system in their favor. For American democracy, that's a terrifying prospect.